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September 2016 Freight Transportation Services Index

Parul Dubey on November 16, 2016 - in Transportation

The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, fell 0.6 percent in September from August, falling for the second consecutive month, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ (BTS). The September 2016 index level (121.5) was 28.2 percent above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).

Freight Transportation Services Index, September 2011 – September 2016

 

Freight Transportation Services Index, September 2011 - September 2016

The level of freight shipments in September measured by the Freight TSI (121.5) was 2.6 percent below the all-time high level of 124.7 in July 2016 (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data.

The August index was revised down slightly to 122.2 from 122.3 in last month’s release.  The July index was revised up slightly to 124.7 from 124.5.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally adjusted to remove regular seasons from month-to –month comparisons.

Analysis: The September Freight TSI fell 0.6 percent due to declines in trucking, pipeline and rail intermodal, while air freight, water, and rail carloads rose. The September decrease took place as the economy was relatively stable. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production index (link is external) rose only 0.1 percent in September, though employment grew by 161,000 jobs and housing starts were 1.9 percent above the August level.

The 0.7 percent third quarter decrease matched slow growth in Industrial Production, which remained unchanged in the third quarter, while Gross Domestic Product (link is external) (GDP) growth quickened to 2.9 percent in the third quarter. GDP growth in the second and third quarters outpaced the 1.5 percent growth of TSI over those two quarters, after two earlier quarters when GDP grew less than 1 percent and TSI declined.

Trend: The Freight TSI decreased 0.6 percent in September following a 2.0 percent decline August, for a total decline of 2.6 percent over the two months. These two months of decreases followed four months of consecutive monthly increases, leaving the Freight TSI at its lowest point since March. The September level was 0.1 percent below the level at the start of 2016.

The third quarter decrease of 0.7 percent followed an increase of 2.3 percent in the previous quarter, for a net increase of 1.5 percent over the six months. Since the beginning of 2015 Freight TSI has declined in five out of seven quarters and is down 1.8 percent since peaking at 123.7 at the end of the fourth quarter of 2014. The index remains high compared to earlier years, rising 28.2 percent since the low of 94.7 in April 2009.
For additional historical data, go to TSI data.

Index highs and lows: Freight shipments in September 2016 (121.5) were 28.2 percent higher than the recent low in April 2009 during the recession (94.8). The September 2016 level was 2.6 percent below the historic peak reached in July 2016 (124.7) (Table 1A).

Year to date: Freight shipments measured by the index were up 0.1 percent in September compared to the end of 2015 (Table 3).

Long-term trend: Freight shipments are up 9.1 percent in the five years from the post-recession level of September 2011 and are up 7.6 percent in the 10 years from September 2006 (Table 5).

Same month of previous year: September 2016 freight shipments were down 0.6 percent from September 2015 (Tables 4, 5).

3rd quarter changes: The Freight TSI fell 0.7 percent in the third quarter, the third quarterly decline in the last four quarters (Table 10).

The TSI has three seasonally adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the October 2016 index is scheduled for Dec. 14.

Passenger Index: The TSI for passengers rose 0.7 percent in September from its August level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI September 2016 level of 123.8 was 0.6 percent above the September 2015 level (Table 7). The index is up 7.5 percent in five years and up 11.7 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in travel that involves the services of the for-hire passenger transportation sector. The seasonally adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.

Combined Index: The combined freight and passenger TSI fell 0.2 percent in September from its August level (Table 8). The combined TSI September 2016 level of 122.3 was 0.2 percent below the September 2015 level (Table 9). The combined index is up 8.6 percent in five years and up 8.7 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month’s data are added.

BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use the FRED database (link is external), which includes freight, passenger  and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database. See TSI data on FRED (link is external).

For a webinar on the TSI, see Past Webinars. For a video explanation of the TSI, see Overview of the Transportation Services Index. A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.

Table 1: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes Since March 2016

Percent Change from Previous Month

(Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)

Freight Passenger Combined
Index Pct. Change Index Pct. Change Index Pct. Change
March 119.7 -1.1 122.2 -1.3 120.6 -1.1
April 121.6 1.6 123.8 1.3 122.3 1.4
May 121.9 0.2 124.1 0.2 122.7 0.3
June 122.4 0.4 125.4 1.0 123.4 0.6
July 124.7 1.9 124.6 -0.6 124.7 1.1
August 122.2 -2.0 123.0 -1.3 122.5 -1.8
September 121.5 -0.6 123.8 0.7 122.3 -0.2

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

 

Table 1A: Annual High and Low Points in Freight Transportation Services Index, 2009-2016

Year Month Peak Month Bottom
2009 December 101.5 April 94.8
2012 June 113.5 October 110.2
2013 November 119.1 January 114.2
2014 December 123.7 January 116.0
2015 January 122.8 February, November 121.2
2016 (thru September) July 124.7 March 119.7

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

Table 2: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2013-2016

Percent change from previous month

2013 % Change 2014 % Change 2015 % Change 2016 % Change
January 1.6 -1.9 -0.7 0.8
February 1.1 1.4 -1.3 -1.1
March 0.1 1.4 1.1 -1.1
April -0.9 0.5 -0.9 1.6
May 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.2
June 0.3 -0.8 -0.5 0.4
July -0.2 0.6 0.6 1.9
August 0.4 0.6 0.2 -2.0
September 0.2 0.3 -0.3 -0.6
October -0.3 0.7 0.3
November 2.4 1.2 -1.1
December -0.7 0.1 0.2

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

Table 2A: Freight Transportation Services Index by Month, 2013-2016

2013 2014 2015 2016
January 114.2 116.0 122.8 122.4
February 115.5 117.6 121.2 121.0
March 115.6 119.2 122.5 119.7
April 114.6 119.8 121.4 121.6
May 115.8 120.5 122.3 121.9
June 116.1 119.5 121.7 122.4
July 115.9 120.2 122.4 124.7
August 116.4 120.9 122.6 122.2
September 116.6 121.3 122.2 121.5
October 116.3 122.1 122.6
November 119.1 123.6 121.2
December 118.3 123.7 121.4

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes Year-to-Date Change, 2007-2016

Percent change to September from December of the previous year

Year Freight Passenger Combined
2007 -1.3 3.4 0.1
2008 -3.1 -3.6 -3.3
2009 -0.9 -0.7 -1.0
2010 5.5 2.5 4.6
2011 2.4 1.8 2.2
2012 -2.8 0.1 -1.9
2013 3.7 1.3 2.9
2014 2.5 2.0 2.5
2015 -1.2 1.8 -0.2
2016 0.1 -0.4 -0.1

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

Table 4: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

Percent change in the September Freight TSI

(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

September Freight TSI Percent change from same month previous year
2007 109.3 -3.2
2008 107.3 -1.8
2009 99.4 -7.4
2010 107.1 7.7
2011 111.4 4.0
2012 112.1 0.6
2013 116.6 4.0
2014 121.3 4.0
2015 122.2 0.7
2016 121.5 -0.6

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

 

Table 5: Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years

Percent Change to 2016 (September to September)

Since September . . . Duration in years Freight TSI Percent change to September 2016 Passenger TSI Percent change to September 2016 Combined TSI Percent change to September 2016
2015 1 -0.6 0.6 -0.2
2014 2 0.2 3.0 1.0
2013 3 4.2 5.4 4.6
2012 4 8.4 6.9 7.9
2011 5 9.1 7.5 8.6
2010 6 13.4 9.4 12.2
2009 7 22.2 13.0 19.4
2008 8 13.2 10.4 12.3
2007 9 11.2 5.4 9.3
2006 10 7.6 11.7 8.7

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

Table 6: Passenger Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2013-2016

Percent change from previous month

2013 % Change 2014 % Change 2015 % Change 2016 % Change
January 0.9 -0.1 -0.8 -0.8
February -0.3 -0.3 -1.3 0.4
March -0.5 2.1 2.4 -1.3
April 0.7 -0.1 0.2 1.3
May 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.2
June 0.6 -0.7 0.3 1.0
July -0.8 0.3 3.3 -0.6
August 0.8 0.6 -2.7 -1.3
September -0.1 -0.3 0.3 0.7
October 0.1 0.2 1.1
November 0.9 -0.7 -1.0
December -0.6 1.0 0.9

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

Table 7: Passenger Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

Percent change in the September Passenger TSI

(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

September Passenger TSI Percent change from same month previous year
2007 117.5 6.0
2008 112.1 -4.6
2009 109.6 -2.2
2010 113.2 3.3
2011 115.2 1.8
2012 115.8 0.5
2013 117.5 1.5
2014 120.2 2.3
2015 123.1 2.4
2016 123.8 0.6

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

 

Table 8: Combined Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2013-2016

Percent change from previous month

2013 % Change 2014 % Change 2015 % Change 2016 % Change
January 1.4 -1.4 -0.7 0.2
February 0.7 0.9 -1.3 -0.6
March -0.2 1.6 1.5 -1.1
April -0.3 0.3 -0.6 1.4
May 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3
June 0.4 -0.8 -0.2 0.6
July -0.4 0.5 1.4 1.1
August 0.5 0.6 -0.7 -1.8
September 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.2
October -0.1 0.5 0.6
November 1.9 0.6 -1.1
December -0.7 0.4 0.4

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

Table 9: Combined Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

Percent change in the September Combined TSI

(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

September Combined TSI Percent change from same month previous year
2007 111.9 -0.5
2008 108.9 -2.7
2009 102.4 -6.0
2010 109.0 6.4
2011 112.6 3.3
2012 113.3 0.6
2013 116.9 3.2
2014 121.1 3.6
2015 122.6 1.2
2016 122.3 -0.2

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

 

Table 10: Freight Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 2007-2016

Percent change from the last month of the previous quarter

Year 1st Quarter (Jan-Mar) % Growth 2nd Quarter (Apr-Jun) % Growth 3rd Quarter (Jul-Sep) % Growth 4th Quarter (Oct-Dec) % Growth
2007 1.0 -1.9 -0.4 1.3
2008 -0.8 0.0 -2.3 -6.5
2009 -4.4 0.2 3.4 2.1
2010 3.9 0.9 0.7 1.6
2011 1.7 -0.4 1.0 3.5
2012 -3.4 1.9 -1.2 0.3
2013 2.8 0.4 0.4 1.5
2014 0.8 0.3 1.5 2.0
2015 -1.0 -0.7 0.4 -0.7
2016 -1.4 2.3 -0.7

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

Table 11: Passenger Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 2007-2016

Percent change from the last month of the previous quarter

Year 1st Quarter (Jan-Mar) % Growth 2nd Quarter (Apr-Jun) % Growth 3rd Quarter (Jul-Sep) % Growth 4th Quarter (Oct-Dec) % Growth
2007 2.6 0.2 0.7 -1.0
2008 0.3 -0.3 -3.7 -1.5
2009 -1.7 0.0 1.0 0.7
2010 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.0
2011 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.4
2012 0.3 -0.7 0.5 0.2
2013 0.2 1.3 -0.2 0.3
2014 1.7 -0.3 0.5 0.6
2015 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.0
2016 -1.7 2.6 -1.3

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

Table 12: Combined Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 2007-2016

Percent change from the last month of the previous quarter

Year 1st Quarter (Jan-Mar) % Growth 2nd Quarter (Apr-Jun) % Growth 3rd Quarter (Jul-Sep) % Growth 4th Quarter (Oct-Dec) % Growth
2007 1.4 -1.2 -0.1 0.6
2008 -0.5 0.0 -2.8 -5.1
2009 -3.7 0.2 2.6 1.8
2010 2.8 0.9 0.8 1.1
2011 1.3 0.0 0.9 2.6
2012 -2.3 1.2 -0.7 0.3
2013 1.9 0.8 0.2 1.1
2014 1.1 0.1 1.3 1.5
2015 -0.6 -0.2 0.6 -0.2
2016 -1.5 2.3 -0.9

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

Brief Explanation of the TSI

The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.  The freight index measure changes in freight shipments while the passenger index measures changes in passenger travel.

The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy.   The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The freight transportation index consists of:
For-hire trucking,
Railroad freight services (including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland waterways transportation,
Pipeline transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and natural gas), and
Air freight.

The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.

The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local transit,
Intercity passenger rail, and
Passenger air transportation.

The index does not include intercity bus, sightseeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation.

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